Frank Holland (Anchor) 00:00.070
all right so give us a sense we have the the data through Q three what are we seeing in Q four and what's the outlook for twenty twenty six you expecting it to be another busy year for activist investors yeah
Kenneth Squire (Founder & President) 00:09.790
we do well well it's been it's been busy we expect there to be even busy in two thousand twenty six as as investors stop pouring money into mac seven stocks like they have been which has been slowing down and they start looking for value and frankly value stocks we we we see
Kenneth Squire (Founder & President) 00:28.030
activism a lot of good activist opportunities there we think that'll also be helped with lower interest rates which benefits small and mid cap stocks and also leads to more M and A which we're already seeing a lot of activist M and A like we haven't seen before OK
Frank Holland (Anchor) 00:41.710
explain that why is it when interest rates go lower do activists go down cap as opposed to up cap
Kenneth Squire (Founder & President) 00:47.660
well i don't think the activists go down cap i think the the the the the caps are going to stay the same the interest rates just generally benefit small and mid cap companies so you start seeing more investment in there and lower interest rate environments and it also with lower
Kenneth Squire (Founder & President) 01:00.220
interest rates there's more of M and A and when there's more M and A not only is there strategic activism where activists come in and say you should sell the company or sell it or sell a subsidiary but with the threat of M and A looming over companies it's easier for activists
Kenneth Squire (Founder & President) 01:15.340
to come in and implement their agenda
Frank Holland (Anchor) 01:17.910
i know you use AI we're going to get to how you use AI and figure out the companies that are most vulnerable but our activists also using AI does that make it easier to launch an activist campaign
Kenneth Squire (Founder & President) 01:26.430
i mean around the margins they do but you know activist campaigns real good activist campaigns are are are still a lot of you know analysis and meeting with investors meeting with shareholders meeting with management and it's it's it's just around the margins i would say all
Kenneth Squire (Founder & President) 01:41.190
right i
Frank Holland (Anchor) 01:41.430
want to get to how you're using AI use it for your company vulnerability ratings i want to go small cap first you say yelp has one of the highest company vulnerability ratings what what kind of sets a company up to have a rating of ninety seven point eight out of a scale of one
Frank Holland (Anchor) 01:55.560
hundred
Kenneth Squire (Founder & President) 01:56.550
so so we so we we developed these these as you said AI developed company vulnerability ratings for more than twenty five hundred companies and it takes into account my knowledge over the last twenty years of of analyzing catalysts activist catalyst and having relationships with
Kenneth Squire (Founder & President) 02:12.230
activists and and you know the average the average activist engagement that that since we've developed these these ratings has been over eighty out of a hundred so they they've been pretty accurate so we look at this type of things we look at a full peer analysis operational
Kenneth Squire (Founder & President) 02:28.150
data like profitability revenue and margins valuation analysis analysis stock ownership corporate governance factors and you're right yelp has a ninety seven point eight CBR it's a company with two hundred and fifty million dollars of ebitda they still have three hundred million
Kenneth Squire (Founder & President) 02:42.350
dollars of net cash so there's certainly a capital allocation opportunity there and it's also at one point seven billion dollars it's a great brand that we could see somebody wanting to own all right
Frank Holland (Anchor) 02:51.310
and the mid cap you have moderna at ninety four point nine we've been talking a lot about healthcare we've seen healthcare move higher what makes moderna an attractive target for an activist investor
Kenneth Squire (Founder & President) 03:00.910
so there's there's a lot of activism going on in the healthcare sector and you you know we all know the story about moderna it's a company that that went from close to five hundred dollars a share down to thirty dollars a share as their covid vaccine revenue started to fall off
Kenneth Squire (Founder & President) 03:15.430
but the company has been able to save three point seven five billion dollars of net cash they still have two billion to over two billion dollars in sales and the problem there is that with two billion dollars themselves that R and D is over three billion dollars a year so this
Kenneth Squire (Founder & President) 03:31.790
is a type of situation where an activist can come in and instill some some discipline from a board level and get that R and D to a manageable level and get the company back to profitability all right
Frank Holland (Anchor) 03:41.270
you also say international activism is up you particularly look at japan right now what's going on in japan that's going to lead to more activism when it comes to companies
Kenneth Squire (Founder & President) 03:49.590
well so japan you know the the the the main the main tailwind for japan is that in two thousand twenty three the tokyo stock exchange and the regulators have come in and and told companies they need to get their roe 's above eight and their their price to book values above one
Kenneth Squire (Founder & President) 04:04.550
sixty percent of companies in japan have are always below eight percent and price of books below one and it's really it's really emboldened activism and and the the the tokyo stock exchange has literally said you need to start listening to activists to to these companies you
Kenneth Squire (Founder & President) 04:19.790
know the average company in japan is forty nine percent of their of their net of their market cap and net cash so there's a ton of of of activism that can be done there and that is being done there that that that is there's been giving returns right away right now there's over a
Kenneth Squire (Founder & President) 04:35.550
hundred and fifty live activ it's going on in japan alone