Gold trade in first half of 2026 will likely continue: TD Securities' Melek
December 22, 2025 • 3m 30s
? (Anchor)
00:00.070
gold
and
silver
hitting
new
records
today
both
pacing
for
the
best
year
since
nineteen
seventy
nine
copper
is
also
at
new
highs
it's
having
its
best
year
since
two
thousand
nine
will
the
commodity
run
up
continue
in
twenty
twenty
six
well
joining
us
now
TD
securities
global
head
? (Anchor)
00:13.590
of
commodity
strategy
bart
malik
bart
it's
great
to
have
you
on
and
i
want
to
start
right
there
because
it's
been
such
a
torrid
year
whether
it's
precious
metals
or
industrial
metals
does
it
continue
well
Bart Melek (Global Head of Commodity Strategy)
00:26.510
great
to
be
here
certainly
we
think
that
gold
in
the
first
half
of
twenty
twenty
six
will
likely
continue
we're
looking
at
a
quarterly
high
of
forty
four
hundred
dollars
which
implies
a
trading
high
about
you
know
forty
six
forty
seven
plus
and
we
we
think
that
this
trade
based
Bart Melek (Global Head of Commodity Strategy)
00:48.590
on
lower
fed
funds
as
we
move
into
the
twenty
twenty
six
continues
to
happen
of
the
yield
curve
and
inflation
i
think
will
remain
stubbornly
above
the
two
percent
target
at
the
same
time
central
banks
around
the
world
are
betting
on
this
whole
trade
associated
with
you
know
Bart Melek (Global Head of Commodity Strategy)
01:10.990
reduced
value
of
the
US
dollar
we're
seeing
investors
trying
to
remix
their
portfolios
from
this
traditional
sixty
forty
to
now
include
as
much
as
twenty
five
percent
exposure
in
commodities
which
includes
gold
silver
oil
copper
and
and
some
of
the
other
major
commodities
are
Bart Melek (Global Head of Commodity Strategy)
01:33.760
you
? (Anchor)
01:33.880
a
believer
in
the
debasement
trade
i
mean
i
realize
a
lot
of
folks
have
made
a
lot
of
money
on
it
this
year
and
it
certainly
makes
sense
to
hedge
your
bets
here
when
i
hear
numbers
like
twenty
five
percent
in
commodities
in
a
in
a
portfolio
and
i
look
at
where
the
dollar
is
and
? (Anchor)
01:47.120
yes
it
came
off
this
year
but
it's
starting
to
come
back
i
i
just
wonder
what
what
kind
of
legs
this
has
well
Bart Melek (Global Head of Commodity Strategy)
01:53.670
i
think
for
now
it's
very
very
much
on
top
of
mind
but
realistically
the
economy
is
slowing
somewhat
employment
numbers
are
eroding
the
implication
here
is
we're
probably
going
to
see
less
inflationary
pressure
and
it's
very
likely
that
some
of
the
most
aggressive
tariff
actions
Bart Melek (Global Head of Commodity Strategy)
02:14.190
taken
against
US
trading
partners
are
going
to
be
mitigated
to
to
some
degree
you
know
particularly
on
some
of
the
precious
metals
other
inputs
like
aluminum
and
copper
we
think
of
these
levels
it's
unsustainable
so
inflation
may
very
well
start
trending
lower
as
well
because
of
Bart Melek (Global Head of Commodity Strategy)
02:31.910
those
factors
and
you
know
the
fed
is
unlikely
to
be
overly
aggressive
on
the
easing
you
know
certainly
this
is
what
mister
powell
is
signaling
to
the
market
but
realistically
we
will
have
somebody
new
in
may
twenty
twenty
six
and
we
will
probably
continue
to
have
a
white
house
Bart Melek (Global Head of Commodity Strategy)
02:51.200
that
is
you
know
maybe
not
interfering
legally
but
will
probably
try
to
pressure
the
the
fed
to
be
as
accommodative
as
it
can
so
the
economy
is
likely
going
to
be
try
to
be
geared
up
hot
we're
going
to
see
the
fed
tilting
towards
a
maximum
employment
part
of
their
mandate
so
i
Bart Melek (Global Head of Commodity Strategy)
03:12.990
think
partially
that
trade
remains
but
you
know
to
have
twenty
five
percent
exposure
in
commodities
out
of
the
hundreds
of
trillions
of
dollars
that
are
now
sitting
in
equities
and
fixed
income
that's
probably
not
possible
and
that
would
blow
up
the
entire
commodity
market
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