Scott Wapner (Host) 00:00.070
two of the most anticipated questions of twenty twenty six are who will be the next fed chairman and how many times will they cut rates for some clues let's welcome in richard fisher he's the former dallas fed president now a senior advisor at jefferies it's good to see you
Scott Wapner (Host) 00:13.710
welcome back
Richard Fisher (Senior Advisor) 00:15.230
thank you and happy holidays to you and everybody at CNBC we
Scott Wapner (Host) 00:19.030
appreciate you thank you all right would you cut rates in twenty six if you had the vote
Richard Fisher (Senior Advisor) 00:23.830
depends on what the numbers show we got some rather dodgy inflation numbers recently they're incomplete you're hearing if you talk to business leaders that they're going to try to move prices a little bit more aggressively next year at least once i talk to and we also hearing
Richard Fisher (Senior Advisor) 00:42.390
that we're getting a lot of
Richard Fisher (Senior Advisor) 00:44.710
a lot of propelling coming from the AI capex investment which seems to be carrying a lot of GDP all that needs to be settled out next year so i would wait and see i don't think there's any hurry i also don't think under the current structure of the fed there's a predisposition
Richard Fisher (Senior Advisor) 01:02.310
under chairman pals leadership to necessarily commit already to moving next year other than myron i doubt you're going to see people advocating until we get better data and we just haven't had a full set of data the last inflation data we got is only good from the fourteenth of
Richard Fisher (Senior Advisor) 01:21.390
the month onwards so we didn't get a full month view and certain sectors were left out it looked
Scott Wapner (Host) 01:26.950
reference we'll have to see if that's true you reference mister meyer and who who said in an interview that the fed risks recession without more interest rate cuts he said if we don't you don't buy that
Richard Fisher (Senior Advisor) 01:39.550
no look he is he is by the way a very nice man he conduct himself from what i understand at the meetings very respectfully but he's just carrying the water for president trump so i don't buy it and and and i do think the president would like to have if it doesn't work and i pray
Richard Fisher (Senior Advisor) 01:57.150
to god his economic program does work from the standpoint of deregulation etcetera and the good stuff he's doing i hope the economy continues to grow but it would be nice to have a fall guy and obviously they're setting up the fed to be a fall guy which i don't think is fair i
Richard Fisher (Senior Advisor) 02:12.790
think the fed 's done a pretty good job here particularly after cutting rates recently but as you saw scott on your previous interview the the yield curve is steepening and we're not seeing the tenure come below four percent that's a question of treasury auctions and who feels
Richard Fisher (Senior Advisor) 02:30.670
comfortable with the way the balance sheet of the government 's running income and expenditures on interest so i don't think it's fair to blame the fed as he seems to be predisposed to doing until you actually see what the outcome is we don't know what
Scott Wapner (Host) 02:46.510
the outcome is yet the the challenge i guess certainly one of them is the the idea of letting the economy run hot right run it hot is is out there sort of in the zeitgeist around the the market and what the fed might be willing to do because if you're gonna get a tremendous
Scott Wapner (Host) 03:05.270
productivity boost from AI you can in many ways offset the idea that you're going to have some runaway inflation by letting it run hot a la greenspan in ninety six in which we're on the cusp of the thirtieth anniversary of that and i should also mention one in which steve
Scott Wapner (Host) 03:23.590
liesman is going to explore in much deeper form tomorrow versus go down you you described yourself the last time you were on with me quote i was i am i always will be a hawk right
Scott Wapner (Host) 03:37.430
so versus this inherent feeling that you have of always feeling that way because you're afraid of what would happen if the effects of inflation were to get out of control once again i mean how do you square both ideas
Richard Fisher (Senior Advisor) 03:54.430
well first of all scott remember i also said and half jokingly but jokingly the doves are members of the pigeon family
Scott Wapner (Host) 04:01.950
you
Richard Fisher (Senior Advisor) 04:02.550
did oriental logically so i don't want to be a pigeon for anybody and that's what my reference was to being a hawk i want to make sure the fed does its job to make sure inflation or deflation doesn't rate its ugly head and every president as i've said to you many times every
Richard Fisher (Senior Advisor) 04:23.550
politician worries about jobs over anything else the job of the fed is to keep the balance we do still have very low unemployment but we keep hearing that things are getting worse no hiring retaining but not hiring new numbers the numbers have not been strong so we're just going
Richard Fisher (Senior Advisor) 04:43.230
to have to see what the balance has got i mean the fed wants to do what's right and that dual mandate makes their job as the chairman has said and everybody says it serves on that committee it's a tough decision right now