A lot of fiscal tailwind coming but it's not all in one direction, says TD Cowen's Chris Krueger
December 23, 2025 • 4m 58s
Speaker 1
00:00.190
but
my
next
guest
says
there's
a
big
risk
on
the
horizon
and
one
that
will
come
before
those
tax
refunds
hit
joining
us
to
discuss
is
TD
cowan
's
chris
krueger
chris
it's
good
to
see
you
and
you're
talking
about
the
obamacare
subsidies
right
Speaker 2
00:13.550
great
to
see
you
as
well
that's
correct
they're
they're
going
to
expire
congress
is
out
of
town
so
they'll
expire
next
week
that's
about
thirty
billion
dollars
that
twenty
two
million
households
have
been
using
to
offset
their
health
insurance
premiums
you
know
there
there
could
Speaker 2
00:30.270
be
sort
of
a
festivus
miracle
here
a
retroactive
fix
when
congress
gets
back
around
january
fifth
january
fifteenth
is
when
open
enrollment
ends
government
funding
runs
dry
on
on
january
thirty
those
are
really
sort
of
the
two
action
forcing
catalysts
we're
we're
watching
for
Speaker 2
00:47.470
but
right
now
it
doesn't
seem
doesn't
seem
too
optimistic
and
it's
about
thirty
billion
dollars
that
will
be
coming
out
of
the
economy
that
Speaker 1
00:54.590
said
a
hundred
and
thirty
five
billion
is
the
amount
of
tax
refund
money
that's
coming
right
i
mean
that's
that
was
wells
fargo
's
number
so
that
would
dwarf
this
hit
well
yeah
Speaker 2
01:04.110
i
mean
well
we
know
that
the
what
the
ACA
subsidy
is
the
forecasts
for
the
refunds
you
know
i
i've
seen
you
know
anything
from
a
hundred
to
to
one
thirty
five
but
it's
still
not
insignificant
one
thing
on
the
refunds
as
well
if
there
is
a
government
shutdown
over
this
issue
Speaker 2
01:21.350
again
those
refunds
might
be
delayed
if
the
IRS
is
shuttered
once
again
too
so
to
to
your
point
i
mean
there's
still
a
lot
of
fiscal
tailwind
coming
but
it's
not
it's
not
all
in
one
direction
no
Speaker 1
01:34.990
and
and
the
other
thing
that
i
wonder
more
about
is
a
the
fact
that
if
people
know
it's
coming
do
they
pull
the
spend
forward
and
kind
of
you
know
use
the
powder
before
it's
even
there
and
B
as
as
we've
heard
people
say
look
the
consumer
products
companies
know
this
as
well
and
Speaker 1
01:47.750
they
could
raise
prices
and
therefore
you
get
kind
of
less
bang
for
your
buck
Speaker 2
01:53.640
that's
right
we
also
i
mean
there's
there's
a
tremendous
uncertainty
going
into
the
new
year
with
the
iepa
tariff
decision
from
the
supreme
court
we
were
expecting
that
by
year
end
but
the
court
is
gone
until
january
ninth
so
you
know
we
we
basically
are
starting
the
year
where
Speaker 2
02:09.320
we
started
at
the
end
of
august
on
capitol
hill
no
resolution
on
the
ACA
subsidies
and
and
no
resolution
on
on
government
spending
but
Speaker 1
02:17.480
it
sounds
to
me
again
going
over
your
numbers
like
the
benefit
is
probably
the
boost
to
consumers
is
probably
going
to
be
real
and
significant
and
i
know
it's
ironic
'cause
this
is
people's
own
money
that
they're
getting
back
but
nevertheless
a
hundred
and
thirty
billion
is
a
Speaker 1
02:30.150
big
number
the
wells
fargo
team
also
said
you
know
if
there's
any
kind
of
tariff
repeal
or
rebate
that
could
be
a
hundred
and
sixty
billion
like
these
numbers
i
think
could
boost
GDP
by
up
to
a
point
in
the
first
quarter
so
we're
coming
off
a
four
percent
Q
three
with
three
and
Speaker 1
02:43.510
a
half
percent
consumer
spending
into
a
situation
where
they
might
get
a
little
extra
boost
so
even
though
there's
an
affordability
crisis
you
can
see
this
at
least
kind
of
drawing
out
the
amount
of
time
that
people
are
possibly
to
keep
all
of
the
spending
going
now
Speaker 2
02:57.630
for
for
sure
you
know
what
else
is
on
the
horizon
with
with
tariffs
could
could
be
positive
could
could
be
negative
but
yeah
i
mean
i
think
the
the
story
the
story
for
a
lot
of
investors
coming
out
of
washington
is
definitely
the
the
one
big
beautiful
axe
you
know
fiscal
Speaker 2
03:16.510
tailwind
but
just
you
know
reminder
that
there
are
some
cross
currents
and
that
those
refunds
won't
hit
in
all
likelihood
until
the
march
april
timeframe
whereas
there's
sort
of
a
a
sequencing
issue
here
in
that
you're
going
to
get
real
hits
to
two
households
and
that
cohort
is
Speaker 2
03:36.230
probably
pretty
similar
to
those
that
are
expecting
the
refunds
right
you
think
about
the
people
on
on
the
obamacare
exchanges
it's
a
lot
of
early
retirees
a
lot
of
small
businesses
and
those
are
folks
who
in
theory
will
be
beneficiaries
of
the
no
tax
on
tips
no
tax
on
overtime
Speaker 2
03:55.560
and
the
increased
senior
deduction
Speaker 1
03:57.550
and
finally
what
do
you
think
they're
gonna
end
up
do
i
know
it's
maybe
hard
on
this
one
to
tell
what
the
outcome
might
be
do
you
think
they're
gonna
end
up
coming
to
some
kind
of
deal
to
keep
some
form
of
the
subsidies
in
place
or
no
Speaker 2
04:09.170
there's
really
not
that
much
time
it's
going
to
have
to
be
retroactive
really
comes
down
to
president
trump
does
president
trump
want
to
do
something
on
this
issue
he's
probably
the
only
individual
that
could
kind
of
break
the
logjam
right
now
there
will
be
a
vote
in
the
house
Speaker 2
04:25.250
on
a
simple
three
year
extension
enough
republicans
joined
the
democratic
discharge
petition
for
that
but
it's
really
up
to
the
up
to
the
senate
it's
a
sixty
vote
hurdle
in
the
senate
so
you
would
need
no
less
than
seven
republicans
they're
not
there
right
now
what
does
you
know
Speaker 2
04:42.790
what
are
what
are
members
of
congress
hearing
from
their
constituents
what
is
the
media
coverage
of
this
how
large
are
the
the
premium
increases
et
cetera
so
TBD
you
know
right
now
doesn't
look
great
but
i'll
end
with
a
a
definitive
maybe
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