Deutsche Bank’s Brett Ryan on the disconnect between U.S. jobs data and GDP
December 24, 2025 • 4m 33s
Andrew Ross Sorkin (Anchor and Correspondent)
00:00.430
please
weigh
in
weigh
in
on
the
number
if
you
could
not
all
of
the
other
part
of
it
Brett Ryan (Senior U.S. Economist)
00:06.790
first
happy
holidays
all
and
thank
you
for
everybody
in
the
program
on
the
on
the
jobless
claims
numbers
you
know
i
think
you
have
to
look
at
the
four
week
average
obviously
given
the
volatility
and
on
that
note
on
initial
you're
down
about
a
percentage
point
or
almost
two
Brett Ryan (Senior U.S. Economist)
00:21.110
percentage
points
year
over
year
and
continuing
claims
are
up
a
little
bit
about
one
and
a
half
percent
but
those
aren't
very
concerning
numbers
and
they're
in
line
with
where
i
think
the
unemployment
rate
roughly
is
the
unemployment
rate
may
be
a
little
bit
overstated
at
the
Brett Ryan (Senior U.S. Economist)
00:35.230
moment
but
it's
been
gradually
rising
and
the
question
i
think
is
to
what
degree
is
steve
pointed
out
are
is
the
slowdown
in
the
labor
market
demand
driven
versus
supply
driven
and
that's
really
what's
been
driving
the
fed
debate
and
that's
a
healthy
debate
as
as
fed
chair
Brett Ryan (Senior U.S. Economist)
00:50.150
powell
has
talked
about
with
the
recent
dissents
they
want
a
healthy
debate
that's
the
the
sign
of
a
healthy
institution
but
what
Andrew Ross Sorkin (Anchor and Correspondent)
00:56.350
do
you
think
is
really
happening
because
you
look
at
the
GDP
numbers
and
you
think
OK
things
are
great
yeah
you
look
at
the
the
jobs
numbers
you
might
say
not
so
great
and
if
you're
the
fed
there's
not
much
you
can
do
about
that
because
that'll
just
squeeze
you
right
in
the
Andrew Ross Sorkin (Anchor and Correspondent)
01:07.830
middle
right
Brett Ryan (Senior U.S. Economist)
01:08.470
i
think
you
have
a
lot
of
policy
changes
happening
at
the
same
time
a
lot
of
dials
being
turned
and
that's
kind
of
creating
a
little
bit
of
confusion
i
think
it's
a
little
bit
of
both
you
have
a
decent
trend
in
GDP
growth
in
capex
investment
especially
yes
it
is
driven
by
AI
but
Brett Ryan (Senior U.S. Economist)
01:26.510
it's
being
driven
by
something
and
that's
important
and
number
two
so
you
have
a
labor
market
that
yes
hiring
has
been
low
but
firing
is
also
low
and
so
what
happens
with
with
the
ADP
numbers
for
example
you
know
over
the
summer
when
the
seasonal
factors
are
predicting
stronger
Brett Ryan (Senior U.S. Economist)
01:43.910
hiring
and
you
don't
get
it
you
get
weak
numbers
but
then
during
the
the
months
we're
expecting
large
layoffs
and
you
don't
get
it
you
get
larger
numbers
Andrew Ross Sorkin (Anchor and Correspondent)
01:52.150
same
thing
on
the
boston
goolsby
a
couple
weeks
ago
or
maybe
ten
days
ago
he
said
low
fire
low
hire
is
not
normal
you
get
low
fire
and
it
means
you
have
an
expansion
low
higher
means
you
have
a
contracting
or
weakening
economy
he
says
it's
uncertainty
and
it's
economic
policy
Andrew Ross Sorkin (Anchor and Correspondent)
02:09.110
that
is
keeping
employers
from
hiring
people
but
also
keeping
them
from
firing
people
i
don't
know
if
this
is
a
tail
risk
or
it's
an
issue
for
it
next
year
let's
posit
that
economic
policy
becomes
more
certain
could
you
see
an
acceleration
in
the
job
market
as
a
result
of
that
Brett Ryan (Senior U.S. Economist)
02:26.510
well
yes
and
you're
going
to
see
an
acceleration
in
GDP
on
the
fiscal
policy
alone
i
mean
tax
tax
refunds
this
year
are
going
to
be
huge
we
estimate
roughly
fifty
to
sixty
billion
in
extra
tax
refunds
that
acts
like
a
stimulus
that
should
fuel
solid
growth
in
the
first
half
of
Brett Ryan (Senior U.S. Economist)
02:42.270
next
year
we're
at
two
point
eight
percent
annualized
in
the
first
half
next
year
the
second
half
of
next
year
becomes
a
little
bit
of
a
question
but
i
think
the
other
part
of
this
is
the
policies
in
place
that
are
encouraging
business
investment
other
parts
of
the
economy
aside
Brett Ryan (Senior U.S. Economist)
02:56.630
from
AI
should
start
to
pick
up
and
you
should
start
to
see
investment
there
and
the
question
is
do
you
are
you
going
to
have
enough
workers
to
meet
that
demand
because
you're
seeing
little
telltale
signs
in
certain
sectors
construction
being
one
where
employment
is
down
but
Brett Ryan (Senior U.S. Economist)
03:11.470
wage
growth
looks
like
it's
inflecting
the
NFIB
survey
that
should
that
ask
what's
your
what's
your
biggest
problem
quality
of
labor
starting
to
pick
up
it
was
falling
for
two
years
now
quality
of
labor
is
starting
to
rise
the
percentage
of
respondents
pointing
to
quality
of
Brett Ryan (Senior U.S. Economist)
03:27.270
labor
so
the
tail
risk
here
is
that
you
could
actually
have
somewhat
tightening
of
the
labor
market
at
some
point
next
year
Andrew Ross Sorkin (Anchor and Correspondent)
03:35.510
broke
strong
problems
with
trying
to
figure
out
the
economy
in
a
trump
administration
there
are
so
many
different
things
that
are
being
changed
right
now
and
they
all
sort
of
interact
in
a
way
that
like
for
example
you
could
say
it's
a
clean
productivity
increase
fed
can
cut
Andrew Ross Sorkin (Anchor and Correspondent)
03:52.430
rates
should
go
down
but
you
have
the
immigration
thing
which
interacts
with
it
in
a
way
that
makes
it
a
little
bit
more
uncertain
what
does
the
fed
do
in
this
situation
do
they
cut
or
do
they
wait
to
see
whether
or
not
how
how
how
these
two
things
interact
or
all
the
other
Andrew Ross Sorkin (Anchor and Correspondent)
04:05.310
things
interact
as
well
Brett Ryan (Senior U.S. Economist)
04:06.350
you
have
two
camps
right
now
right
you
have
those
that
that
want
to
that
think
they
need
to
cut
them
further
to
address
downside
risks
and
those
that
are
of
a
higher
neutral
rate
saying
let's
wait
a
minute
let's
take
a
step
back
here
we're
still
above
target
inflation
here
and
Brett Ryan (Senior U.S. Economist)
04:22.710
it's
not
unfeasible
to
think
that
the
labor
market
could
tighten
it
with
these
policies
actually
work
and
generate
growth
strong
growth
that
causes
a
labor
demand
to
pick
up
again
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