Labor market is setting markets up for a good 2026, says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
December 24, 2025 • 4m 25s
Carl Quintanilla (Anchor)
00:00.350
for
what
this
all
means
for
stocks
let's
bring
in
jeremy
siegel
wisdom
tree
chief
economist
and
warden
school
professor
of
finance
jeremy
great
to
see
you
happy
holidays
Jeremy Siegel (Chief Economist)
00:09.110
thank
you
Carl Quintanilla (Anchor)
00:10.590
labor
market
still
doesn't
give
you
too
many
things
to
worry
about
in
claims
although
yesterday
people
were
looking
at
conference
board
job
differential
and
what
that
might
mean
for
i
don't
know
the
prospect
of
a
jobless
expansion
let's
say
yeah
Jeremy Siegel (Chief Economist)
00:24.670
yeah
the
the
the
sweet
spot
for
jobless
claims
you
know
is
between
two
hundred
thousand
two
forty
a
we
have
just
been
there
virtually
every
week
which
is
really
you
know
shows
you
know
not
an
overheating
labor
in
the
market
to
say
the
least
but
one
that
is
certainly
not
Jeremy Siegel (Chief Economist)
00:41.950
deteriorating
and
you
know
setting
us
up
for
potentially
good
twenty
twenty
six
Carl Quintanilla (Anchor)
00:47.750
do
you
think
a
more
dovish
rate
environment
can
unwind
some
of
the
job
loss
that
might
come
from
technology
yeah
Jeremy Siegel (Chief Economist)
00:57.110
i
mean
i
i
you
know
i
i
think
we
should
be
in
the
low
threes
on
the
fed
funds
rate
i
mean
we
really
had
a
good
inflation
report
and
i
don't
think
it's
as
distorted
as
a
lot
of
people
had
had
feared
that
the
housing
component
is
going
to
actually
contribute
a
downward
pressure
Jeremy Siegel (Chief Economist)
01:18.630
for
i
think
many
many
months
on
the
service
part
of
the
CPI
over
the
next
year
and
that's
going
to
keep
it
in
line
once
the
the
trump
bump
of
those
tariffs
which
i
think
were
mostly
through
maybe
a
little
bit
more
in
a
next
month
or
so
goes
through
you
know
i
think
we
we
would
Jeremy Siegel (Chief Economist)
01:36.790
be
on
the
low
twos
on
on
the
CPI
enough
for
the
fed
to
get
it
to
get
the
rate
down
further
Sara Eisen (Anchor)
01:43.950
fed
policy
though
professor
siegel
isn't
in
a
vacuum
in
that
you
also
have
the
backdrop
of
a
fiscal
stimulus
in
the
form
of
changes
to
tax
policy
which
could
benefit
individuals
in
the
form
of
a
bigger
refunds
lower
tax
rates
as
well
as
so
how
do
you
balance
the
two
in
terms
of
Sara Eisen (Anchor)
01:59.470
on
the
one
side
you
have
things
that
could
actually
spur
growth
spur
some
inflation
and
the
other
side
you've
got
also
the
fed
that
that
could
lower
rates
yeah
Jeremy Siegel (Chief Economist)
02:09.430
and
as
kyle
mentioned
at
the
top
you
know
we
we
still
have
two
little
bumps
we
have
to
go
through
before
those
tailwinds
you
just
mentioned
take
place
i
mean
we
do
have
a
supreme
court
ruling
likely
in
a
few
weeks
about
the
legality
of
the
terror
now
my
recommendation
is
the
Jeremy Siegel (Chief Economist)
02:27.790
supreme
court
should
do
is
is
say
to
trump
hey
you
you
need
approval
of
congress
we're
going
to
give
you
six
months
to
get
it
rather
than
just
saying
it's
illegal
give
refunds
i
think
that
would
be
real
disruptive
so
we're
going
to
have
to
see
how
that
proceeds
and
then
hey
Jeremy Siegel (Chief Economist)
02:43.390
let's
not
forget
there
may
be
another
government
shutdown
on
january
thirtieth
something
nobody
wants
but
and
few
are
talking
about
now
if
we
get
through
those
two
bumps
those
tailwinds
that
you
talked
about
are
certainly
you
know
operative
over
the
next
year
yeah
Carl Quintanilla (Anchor)
03:03.590
it's
really
i
think
that
the
picture
right
now
of
push
and
pull
for
Q
one
Q
two
you
mentioned
the
tax
refunds
maybe
checks
from
congress
we'll
see
certainly
gas
prices
all
positive
and
then
on
the
negative
if
they
start
seizing
student
loan
payments
or
electricity
keeps
running
Carl Quintanilla (Anchor)
03:22.430
double
CPI
or
ACA
subsidies
expire
i
mean
that
that's
that's
a
real
balance
of
of
risks
and
tailwinds
isn't
it
yeah
Jeremy Siegel (Chief Economist)
03:29.830
it
is
i
mean
the
ACA
the
subsidies
are
going
to
be
the
big
battle
i
mean
you
know
the
dems
have
have
certainly
put
their
you
know
put
their
hat
on
that
as
being
the
somewhat
of
what
they're
going
to
campaign
on
for
the
for
the
midterm
elections
so
you
know
i
you
know
i
i
think
Jeremy Siegel (Chief Economist)
03:48.230
we
have
to
look
at
what's
going
to
happen
in
four
weeks
there
and
what
the
what
the
republicans
are
going
to
do
that
that
that
is
you
know
healthcare
costs
electricity
costs
are
are
are
the
drags
certainly
gasoline
costs
are
certainly
a
positive
the
refunds
are
definitely
a
Jeremy Siegel (Chief Economist)
04:05.750
positive
and
and
the
fact
that
you
know
rental
prices
and
home
prices
have
stopped
going
up
they're
still
expensive
and
you
know
certainly
out
of
reach
of
of
of
quite
a
few
americans
but
at
least
we
don't
have
that
you
know
double
digit
inflation
that
we
had
in
the
early
twenty
Jeremy Siegel (Chief Economist)
04:24.030
twenty
's
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